Surfaces, Balls and Back-ups – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Decided

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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